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☆ High inflation could be here to stay as commodity prices spike again after a 2-year decline, World Bank says
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
High inflation will stay for longer as commodity prices rallied again after falling for two years, World Bank Group says. The bank expects global inflation to jump by a solid percentage point by 2024 due to the flip-flop oil prices driven by geopolitical risks. But this sluggish decline will buoy commodity prices around 38% higher than pre-COVID averages, offering little relief for inflation-weary economies. The World Bank warned that a significant disruption could propel oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, hiking global inflation by almost a full percentage point in 2024. That fear of lower growth and high inflation was on display in the US on Thursday, as first-quarter GDP came in much lower than expected even as consumer prices remained high in the quarter.
Persons: —, wanes, Indermit Gill, Ayhan Kose Organizations: World Bank, Service, World Bank Group, Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Russia
☆ 'There is a serious gap when it comes to labour supply' in advanced economies, says World Bank economist
  + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'There is a serious gap when it comes to labour supply' in advanced economies, says World Bank economistAyhan Kose, deputy chief economist of World Bank, discusses geopolitical tensions and the global economy.
Persons: Ayhan Kose Organizations: Bank, World Bank
☆ Global economy set for its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says
  + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank. Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest "Global Economic Prospects" report released Tuesday. And despite the global economy proving resilient in the face of recessionary risks in 2023, increased geopolitical tensions will present fresh near-term challenges, the organization said, leaving most economies set to grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025 than they did in the previous decade. Escalation of these conflicts could have significant implications for energy prices that could have impacts on inflation as well as on economic growth," Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, told CNBC's Silvia Amaro. The bank warned that without a "major course correction," the 2020s will go down as "a decade of wasted opportunity."
Persons: CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: World Bank Locations: Eastern Europe, Russian, Ukraine
☆ Oil Prices Could Reach 'Uncharted Waters' if the Israel-Hamas War Escalates, the World Bank Says
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Associated Press | Oct. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
WASHINGTON (AP) — The World Bank reported Monday that oil prices could be pushed into “uncharted waters” if the violence between Israel and Hamas intensifies, which could result in increased food prices worldwide. The World Bank report simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption. But during a “medium disruption” — equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war — the global oil supply would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35%. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices. Overall, oil prices have risen about 6% since the start of the conflict.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Indermit Gill, ” Gill, Ayhan Kose, Kose, —, Janet Yellen, Biden, ”, Fatih Birol Organizations: WASHINGTON, World Bank, Hamas, Israel, Bank, Bloomberg, ” International Energy Agency Locations: Israel, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Ukraine, U.S
☆ Global growth will remain weak into 2024, World Bank says
  + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal growth will remain weak into 2024, World Bank saysAyhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank Group, says global growth is set to dip to 2.1% this year — lower than the average pace over the past decade — with the uptick next year set to be "tepid." He adds that growth in emerging market and developing economies looks particularly poor due to tighter financial conditions.
Persons: Ayhan Kose Organizations: Bank, World Bank Group
☆ World Bank warns of 'lost decade' in global growth without bold policy shifts
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But concerted efforts to boost investment in sustainable sectors, cut trade costs, leverage growth in services, and expand labor force participation could boost potential GDP growth by up to 0.7 percentage point to 2.9%, the report said. The average GDP growth rate is a sort of "speed limit" for the global economy, charting the maximum long-term rate at which it can grow without sparking excess inflation. Low investment will also slow growth in developing economies, with their average GDP growth dropping to 4% for the rest of the 2020s, from 5% in 2011-2021 and 6% from 2000-2010. To change the trajectory, policymakers should prioritize taming inflation, ensuring financial-sector stability and reducing debt, while promoting climate-friendly investments that could add 0.3 percentage point to annual potential growth. Expanding exports of digital services could result in big productivity gains, while raising labor force participation rates for women and others could raise global potential growth rates by as much as 0.2 percentage point a year by 2030.
☆ Central banks around the world are willing to risk recession to fight inflation — and early signs suggest widespread pain for everyone, everywhere
  + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
How a mild US slump becomes a deep global recessionMore than 80 central banks are staring down the same problem. That followed a hike of the same size by the European Central Bank on September 8. That so many central banks share the Fed's outlook could become a huge problem. "But because they are highly synchronous across countries, they could be mutually compounding in tightening financial conditions and steepening the global growth slowdown." Central banks could be mere months away from a lose-lose scenario.
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